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ECONOMIA NELLA UNIONE EUROPEA: l’Italia in affanno ma in crescita, l’eurozona rallenta, la Germania è in stallo

La Commissione europea rivede al ribasso le prospettive di crescita per l’Italia e per l’intera Unione europea.
Nelle previsioni economiche di primavera, Bruxelles stima per il nostro Paese un Pil in aumento dello 0,7% nel 2025 e dello 0,9% nel 2026rispetto alle previsioni autunnali vi è un taglio rispettivamente +1% e +1,2%. Nel contempo, il deficit scenderà gradualmente, ma il debito tornerà a salire.

La Commissione Europea vede l’Italia in affanno sul fronte della crescita economica:

  • una crescita del Pil dello 0,7% nel 2025 e dello 0,9% nel 2026, in netto calo rispetto alle stime autunnali (+1% e +1,2%);
  • il deficit è atteso in discesa: dal 3,4% del Pil nel 2024 al 3,3% nel 2025 e al 2,9% nel 2026;
  • il debito pubblico continuerà a salire, dal 135,3% del Pil nel 2024 al 136,7% nel 2025 e fino al 138,2% nel 2026.

Le cause sono attribuibili, sempre secondo Bruxelles, all’impatto ritardato degli incentivi fiscali legati ai bonus edilizi, come il Superbonus 110% e le altre agevolazioni per la riqualificazione energetica e strutturale degli immobili. In quanto anche se il loro impatto è stato contabilizzato nei disavanzi fino al 2023, gli effetti continueranno a pesare sulle finanze pubbliche nel medio periodo.

Nel resto dell’Eurozona si ravvede un rallentamento strutturale con una crescita prevista dello 0,9% nel 2025 e dell’1,4% nel 2026, contro l’1,3% e l’1,6% stimati in autunno. Nell’intera Ue, il Pil dovrebbe aumentare dell’1,1% nel 2025 e dell’1,5% nel 2026.

Preoccupa in particolare la Germania:

per il 2025 la crescita è ferma allo 0%, dopo il -0,2% del 2024;

nel 2026 si prevede un leggero +1,1%.


Export debole, consumi interni “fiacchi” e condizioni finanziarie restrittive a causa dell’incertezza globale. La Germania resta ferma con una crescita nulla prevista per il 2025. Secondo la Commissione della Unione Europea, sull’economia pesano la debolezza del commercio internazionale, le tensioni geopolitiche e i rischi legati alla transizione climatica.